Nº 316 (July, 2023). Andrés César, Matías Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone & Guido Neidhöfer
“Trade Shocks and Social Mobility: The Intergenerational Effect of Import Competition in Brazil”.
This paper investigates whether the impact of trade shocks on employment and wages persists across generations. Using an instrumental variable strategy on survey data with retrospective information on parental employment, we study the consequences of increased Chinese import competition in Brazilian industries on individuals with differently exposed fathers. Results show that several years after the shock, children of more exposed fathers have lower education and earnings, lower chances of formal jobs, and are more likely to rely on social assistance. These effects are substantial for children from disadvantaged background, indicating that the shock had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility.
JEL codes: I24, J62, F14, F16, J23
Suggested citation: César, A., M. Ciaschi, G. Falcone & G. Neidhöfer (2023). Trade Shocks and Social Mobility: The Intergenerational Effect of Import Competition in Brazil. CEDLAS Working Papers Nº 316, July, 2023, CEDLAS-FCE-Universidad Nacional de La Plata.