Guillermo Cruces

Sub-director

I am a researcher at the Centro de Estudios Distrbutivos, Laborales y Sociales at the Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, and a professor of Labor Economics for UNLP undergraduates and MSc in Economics students. I am also a visiting professor of labor economics at the Universidad de San Andrés and a researcher at CONICET (based at CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP).

  • Public and Economic Policy
  • Poverty and Inequality
  • Labor Economics
  • Impact Evaluation
  • PhD in Economics. London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). 2005.
  • Licenciado (B.A.) in Economics, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT), Buenos Aires, Argentina. 1998
  • Deputy Director of CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP).
  • Researcher. Departament of Economics, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  • Professor of Labor Economics, Magister in Economics, UNLP.
  • Professor of Labor Economics, UNLP.
  • Professor of Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham

Academic Journals

“Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment”, with M. Bergolo, R. Ceni, M. Giaccobasso and R. Perez-Truglia, forthcoming, American Economic Journal-Economic Policy.

“The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high,” with M. Bergolo, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 193, 2021.

“Living Up to Expectations: How Vocational Education Made Women Better Off but Left Men Behind,” with P. Acevedo, P. Gertler and S. Martínez, Labour Economics, vol. 65(C), 2020.

“Educational upgrading and returns to skills in Latin America: evidence from a supply-demand framework”, with L. Gasparini, S. Galiani, and P. Acosta. Latin American Economic Review, 28:18, 2019. NBER 24015.

“Misperceptions about Tax Audits”, with Marcelo Bérgolo, Rodrigo Ceni, Matias Giaccobasso and Ricardo Perez-Truglia, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 108: 83–87, 2018.

“Trade liberalization and informality in Argentina: exploring the adjustment mechanisms”, with G. Porto and M Viollaz, Latin American Economic Review 27 (1), 2018.

“A short episodic history of income distribution in Argentina” with  F. Alvaredo, and L. Gasparini, Lat Am Econ Rev (2018) 27: 7.

“Social Incentives in Contributions: Field Experiment Evidence from the 2012 U.S. Presidential Campaigns”, with R. Perez-Truglia, Journal of Political Economy, 125 (4), 1208–1243, 2017.

“Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Field Experiments”, with A. Cavallo and R. Perez-Truglia, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9 (3), 1–35, 2017.

“Learning from potentially biased statistics,” with A. Cavallo and R. Perez-Truglia, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2016, pages 59-108.

“Youth Training Programs Beyond Employment. Experimental Evidence from Argentina”, with M. L. Alzua and C. Lopez, Economic Inquiry, Volume 54, Issue 4, pages 1839–1859, 2016.

“Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise”, with P. Lanjouw, L. Lucchetti, E. Perova, R. Vakis y M. Viollaz, Journal of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(2), pages 161-179, 2015.

“Work and tax evasion incentive effects of social insurance programs: Evidence from an employment-based benefit extension”, with M. Bergolo, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 117, Pages 211-228, 2014.

“Clases Medias y Vulnerabilidad a la Pobreza. Reflexiones Desde América Latina”, with L.F. López-Calva, S. Lach and E. Ortiz-Juárez, El Trimestre Económico, Vol. Lxxxi (2), Núm. 322, Pp. 281-307, 2014.

“Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise”, with P. Lanjouw, L. Lucchetti, E. Perova, R. Vakis and M. Viollaz, Journal of Economic Inequality, en prensa, 2014.

“Biased Perceptions of Income Distribution and Preferences for Redistribution: Evidence from a Survey Experiment”, with R. Pérez-Truglia and M. Tetaz. Journal of Public Economics 98, pages 100-112, 2013.

“Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries. Experimental evidence from Latin America”, with María Laura Alzúa and Laura Ripani. Journal of Population Economics 26:1255–1284, 2013.

“Poverty and Inequality in Latin America: A Story of Two Decades”, with L. Gasparini,  Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 51-63, 2013.

“Income and Beyond: Multidimensional Poverty in Six Latin American Countries”, with D. Battiston, L. F. Lopez-Calva, M.A. Lugo and Santos, M. E. Social Indicators Research, 112 (2) pp. 291-314, 2013.

“Economic Crises, Maternal and Infant Mortality, Low Birth Weight and Enrollment Rates: Evidence from Argentina’s Downturns”, with P. Gluzmann and L. F. López Calva, World Development, Vol. 40 (2), 2012.

“Informality, Contributory and Non Contributory Programmes. Recent Reforms to the Social Protection System in Uruguay”, with Marcelo Bergolo, Development Policy Review, 31 (5): 531-551, 2013.

“Robustness of Vulnerability Estimators Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile”, with Andrés Ham and Marcelo Bergolo, Journal of Income Distribution 21(1) pages 28-64, 2012.

“Recent Trends in Income Inequality in Latin America”, with L. Gasparini and Leopoldo Tornarolli, Economía Vol. 11 (2) pp. 147-190 (journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association), 2011.

“Payroll Taxes, Wages and Employment: Identification Through Policy Changes in Argentina”, with Sebastián Galiani and Susana Kidyba. Labour Economics, 17 (4), pages 743–749, 2010.

“Refining the Basic Needs Approach: A multidimensional analysis of poverty in Latin America”, with María E. Santos, María A. Lugo, L. López Calva and Diego Battistón, Research on Economic Inequality Vol. 18, 2010.

“Las asignaciones universales por hijo en Argentina: Impacto, discusión y alternativas,” with Leonardo Gasparini, Económica-UNLP, vol. LVI, pp. 145-186, 2010.

“Desigualdad en Argentina. Una Revisión de la Evidencia Empírica”, with Leonardo Gasparini, Desarrollo Económico. Part I, Vol. 48, Nº 192; part II, Vol. 49, Nº 193,  2009.

“E pur si muove? Movilidad, pobreza y desigualdad en América Latina”, with Adriana Conconi, Sergio Olivieri and Raúl Sánchez, Económica Vol. LIV – Nro. 1-2 – Enero-Diciembre 2008.

“Fertility and Female Labor Supply in Latin America: New Causal Evidence”, with Sebastian Galiani. Labour Economics, 2007, Vol. 14, Issue 3, pp. 565-573.

“Risk-Adjusted Poverty in Argentina: Measurement and Determinants”, with Quentin Wodon. Journal of Development Studies 2007, Vol. 43, No. 7, 1189–1214.

“Challenges for Health and Social Protection in Latin America”, Global Social Policy 7(2), 2007, with D. Titelman.

“Perceptions of Inequality and Risk”, with Frank Cowell, Research on Economic Inequality, Volume 12. Studies on Economic Well-Being, ed. by Y. Amiel and J. Bishop, Ch. 4, 2004.

“Poverty Measurement Under Risk Aversion Using Panel Data”, with Paul Makdissi and Quentin Wodon, Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy, Volume 3, Article 13, 2004.

“Transient and chronic poverty in turbulent times: Argentina 1995-2002”, with Q. Wodon, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 9 no. 3 pp. 1-12, 2004.

“Argentina’s Crises and the Poor, 1995-2002”, with Quentin Wodon, STICERD-DARP Working Paper 71, July 2003. Published in Económica, Vol.XLIX, N°1-2, 2003.

Books, chapters, background papers and reports

Growth, Employment, and Poverty in Latin America, with Gary S. Fields, David Jaume, and Mariana Viollaz, WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, ISBN: 9780198801085. 2017

“Inequality in Education. Evidence for Latin America”, with C. García Domench and L. Gasparini, Chapter 15 in Cornia, G. (Ed.), Falling Inequality in Latin America. Policy Changes and Lessons.  WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, ISBN 978-0-19-870180-4, 2014.

“Labor Informality and the Incentive Effects of Social Protection Systems: Evidence from a Health Reform in Uruguay”, with M. Bergolo. Chapter 4 in Social Security, Informal Sector, and Employment in Middle Income Countries: How to Protect Workers While Creating Good Jobs, edited by M. Frölich, D. Kaplan, C. Pagés, J. Rigolini y D. Robalino, ISBN 978-0-19-968523-3, Oxford University Press, 2014.

“A Distribution in Motion: The Case of Argentina”, with Leonardo Gasparini, chapter 5 in Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress?, edited by Luis Felipe López Calva and Nora Lustig, Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 0-8157-0410-0, 2010.

“Well-being at the Sub-City Level: The Buenos Aires Neighborhood Quality of Life Survey”, with Andrés Ham and Martín Tetaz, forthcoming as chapter 4,  The Quality of Life in Latin American Cities: Markets and Perception, edited by E. Lora, A. Powell, B. van Praag and P. Sanguinetti. ISBN: 0-8213-7837-6. Washington DC: Palgrave-Development Forum Series, 2010.

Participation in “Opinions and preferences toward income support”, Chapter 3 in Argentina. Income support policies toward the Bicentennial, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, ISBN 978-0-8213-8051-2. With the report’s editors.

“Comment on “Peaceable Kingdoms and War Zones: Preemption, Ballistics and Murder in Newark””, by Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Forthcoming in The Economics of Crime: Lessons for Latin America, University of Chicago Press/NBER, ed. by Rafael Di Tella, Sebastian Edwards and Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2010.

Co-editor of the book Los programas sociales en Argentina hacia el Bicentenario. Visiones y perspectivas, with Juan Martín Moreno, Dena Ringold and Rafael Rofman, October 2008. Edited by the World Bank, Buenos Aires, ISBN 9-789879-805763.

“Introducción”, in Los programas sociales en Argentina hacia el Bicentenario, with Juan Martín Moreno, Dena Ringold and Rafael Rofman.

“Los programas sociales en la opinión pública. Resultados de la Encuesta de Percepción de Planes Sociales en la Argentina”, Chapter 2 in Los programas sociales en Argentina hacia el Bicentenario, with Helena Rovner

“Protección social en América Latina: cobertura, fuentes de financiamiento y organización de los sistemas”, with  Daniel Titelman, Chapter II in Machinea, J. and Serra, N., Hacia un nuevo pacto social. Políticas económicas para un desarrollo integral en América Latina, ISBN 9788487072963, CEPAL and Fundació CIDOB, 2008.

Participation in ECLAC’s report Shaping the Future of Social Protection: Access, Financing and Solidarity, Santiago, 2006.

“Risk-Adjusted Poverty in Argentina: Measurement and Determinants”, with Quentin Wodon, In World Bank (2003), Argentina Crisis and Poverty 2003. A Poverty Assessment, Volume 2, and STICERD-DARP Working Paper 72, 2003.

“La Protección Social en Paraguay – Cobertura Previsional y Vulnerabilidad”, with Camila Arza. Paper for the Paraguay Social Protection Report, World Bank 2003.

Working papers and consultancy reports

“Information, Price, and Barriers to Adoption and Usage of Mobile Money Evidence from a Field Experiment in The Gambia,” with H. Jawara, A. Touray and F. Singhateh. PEP Working paper 2020-17

“Tax audits as scarecrows: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment,” with Marcelo L Bérgolo, Rodrigo Ceni, Matias Giaccobasso and Ricardo Perez-Truglia, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Working Paper 23631, 2017.

“Educational upgrading and returns to skills in Latin America: evidence from a supply-demand framework”, with L. Gasparini, S. Galiani, and P. Acosta, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 24015, 2017.

“Living Up to Expectations: How Job Training Made Women Better Off and Men Worse Off”, with Paloma Acevedo, Paul Gertler, and Sebastian Martinez, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23264.

“Trade Liberalization and Informality: Short Run and Long Run Adjustment Mechanisms”, with M. Viollaz and G. Porto, mimeo, CEDLAS-UNLP, 2014.

“Inequality in Education. Evidence for Latin America”, with C. García Domench and L. Gasparini, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research WIDER Working Paper 2011/x, 2011.

“Labor informality and the incentive effects of social protection systems: Evidence from a health reform in Uruguay”, with M. Bérgolo, IDB Publications 62318, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC, 2011. Winner (first prize), Inter-American Award for Research on Social Security 2011, Inter-American Conference on Social Security.

“Intra-generational Mobility and Repeated Cross-Sections: A three-country Validation Exercise”, with P. Lanjouw, L. Lucchetti, E. Perova, R. Vakis and M. Viollaz, Policy Research Working Paper Series 5916, The World Bank, 2011.

“Biased Perceptions of Income Distribution and Preferences for Redistribution: Evidence from a Survey Experiment”, with R. Pérez-Truglia and M. Tetaz, IZA DP 5699 http://ftp.iza.org/dp5699.pdf, 2011.

“Down and Out or Up and In? Polarization-Based Measures of the Middle Class for Latin America”, with Luis Felipe López Calva and Diego Battistón, CEDLAS Working Paper 113, 2011.

“Vulnerability to poverty in Latin America. Empirical Evidence from cross-sectional data and robustness analysis with panel data”, with M. Bérgolo, L. Gasparini and A. Ham, Chronic Poverty Research Centre Working Paper N. 170, ISBN: 978-1-906433-83-3.

“Las Asignaciones Universales por Hijo: Impacto, Discusión y Alternativas”, with Leonardo Gasparini. CEDLAS working paper 102, July 2010.

“La flexibilidad laboral en América Latina: Las reformas pasadas y perspectivas futuras”, with A. Ham,  Documento W LC/W.291, Colección Documentos de Proyecto, CEPAL, Santiago, Chile, August 2010.

“Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries. Experimental evidence from Latin America”, with María Laura Alzúa and Laura Ripani. CEDLAS working paper 95, March 2010. Under consideration.

“Income and Beyond: Multidimensional Poverty in six Latin American countries”, with Diego Battiston, Luis Felipe Lopez Calva, Maria Ana Lugo and Maria Emma Santos, Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Working Paper N. 17, and CEDLAS working paper 90 (November, 2009).

“A Turning Point? Recent Developments on Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean”, with Leonardo Gasparini, Leopoldo Tornarolli and Mariana Marchionni. CEDLAS working paper N. 81 (Feb., 2009).

“Programas sociales y transferencias de ingresos en Uruguay: los beneficios no contributivos y las alternativas para su extensión”, with Rodrigo Arim and Andrea Vigorito, Serie de políticas sociales No. 146, CEPAL-Social Development Division, 2009.

“A Distribution in Motion: The Case of Argentina. A Review of the Empirical Evidence”, with Leonardo Gasparini, UNDP project  on “Markets, the State and the Dynamics of Inequality: How to Advance Inclusive Growth”, August 2008. Published as CEDLAS working paper N. 78 (November, 2008).

“Programas Sociales en Argentina: Alternativas para la Ampliación de la Cobertura”, with Leonardo Gasparini. Published as CEDLAS working paper N. 77 (November, 2008).

“Quality of Life in Buenos Aires’ Neighborhoods: Hedonic Price Regressions and the Life Satisfaction Approach”, with Andrés Ham and Martín Tetaz. Working paper for the project “Quality of Life in Urban Neighborhoods in LAC”, IADB. Published as Research Network Working Paper #R-559, Washington (September 2008).

“Urban quality of life and real estate prices: distance to facilities and neighborhood characteristics in hedonic regressions for Buenos Aires”, with Gonzalo Fernández y Andrés Ham, working paper, CEDLAS, 2008.

“Los programas sociales y los objetivos de desarrollo del Milenio en Argentina”, with Nicolás Epele and Laura Guardia, Serie Políticas Sociales 142, División de Desarrollo Social, CEPAL, Chile, April 2008.

“E pur si muove? Movilidad, Pobreza y Desigualdad en América Latina”, with Adriana Conconi, Sergio Olivieri and Raúl Sánchez. CEDLAS working paper N. 62, December 2007.

“Percepciones sobre los Planes Sociales en Argentina”, with Helena Rovner and Agustina Schijman, Serie de Documentos de Trabajo sobre Políticas Sociales Nº 2, Oficina del Banco Mundial en Argentina, December 2007.

“Social protection and health systems in Latin America and the Caribbean”, with Oscar Cetrángolo and Daniel Titelman, manuscript, presented at the WIDER Conference on Health Equity, Helsinki, September 2007.

“Instituciones de la política social: objetivos, principios y atributos”, with J. L. Machinea. Santiago : CEPAL, 2006. 37 p. (Serie Informes y Estudios Especiales, n. 17), LC/L.2573-P

“Evaluating the Impact of Income Fluctuations on Poverty”, manuscript, presented at the WIDER Jubilee Conference, June 2005.

“Income Fluctuations, Poverty and Well-Being Over Time: Theory and Application to Argentina,” STICERD-DARP Working Paper 76, 2005.

“Generalizing the Causal Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Supply”, with Sebastian Galiani. William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 625, University of Michigan, October 2003.

“Poverty Measurement Under Risk Aversion Using Panel Data”, with Paul Makdissi and Quentin Wodon, Cahiers de Recherche – Université de Sherbrooke, 03-06, 2003.

“Perceptions of Risk: An Experimental Approach Using Internet Questionnaires”, with Frank Cowell, STICERD-DARP Working Paper 70, May 2003. Forthcoming, Research on Economic Inequality.

“Beyond the Buzzword `Social Capital´ in Economics”, STICERD Annual Review, 2001.

“Participation, Poverty and Exclusion: Evidence From Argentina”, manuscript, 2001.

“Inflation And Income Distribution: A Survey Of Research Strategies For Empirical Estimation (With An Application To The Argentine Case)”- April 2000. MSc. Thesis, LSE.

“Regulación y Competencia en los Servicios Públicos Privatizados, Diagnóstico y Propuestas”, with M. Rodríguez Pardina and D. Petrecolla, FADE Policy Note Nº. 3, 1999.

  • First place, Premio Academia Nacional de Ciencias Económicas, Argentina, 2013
  • First place, Fundación Vidanta 2012, Academic study: “Propuesta y Proyecciones para reducir pobreza y desigualdad”, with L. Gasparini
  • First place, Inter-American Award for Research on Social Security 2011 Inter-American Conference on Social Security
  • 2002-2005: Comisión Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas, External scholarship.
  • 2000-2002: British Council – Fundación Antorchas Scholarship (UK).
  • 1999-2000:  Chevening Scholar, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and British Council.
  • Hons. Gold Medal, UTDT class of 1994

Teaching

Visiting

  • Visiting Scholar, Center for Effective Global Action, Univ. of California-Berkeley. Jan.-Feb. 2015
  • Visiting Scholar, David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, Harvard University. Aug.-Dec. 2013
  • British Academy Visiting Fellowship at STICERD, LSE. Jan.-Feb. 2008

Teaching

  • From Sept. 2008: Visiting professor, Distributive Economics, MSc. Econ., Universidad de San Andrés
  • From March 2007: Visiting professor of Labor Economics, Universidad de San Andrés, Argentina
  • From March 2007: Topics in Distributive Analysis, Master in Economics, UNLP, Argentina
  • Jun.-Aug 2012:  Couse on Income distribution, Maestría en Políticas Públicas, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  • Dec. 2011: Senior instructor, J-Pal Latin America impact evaluation course, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  • October 2006: Course on Social Protection in LAC, ILO, Santiago de Chile
  • 2005-2006: Topics on distributive analysis, ECLAC Summer school.
  • July 2000-Feb. 2005: Research assistant, STICERD, LSE. For Professor Frank Cowell.
  • Oct. 2000-Dec. 2002: Class teacher, Economics Department, LSE. “Economics B”. A. Marin and D. Quah.
  • Sept. 1996-Dec. 1998: Class teacher, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. “Economía I” (1998) and “Historia Económica Internacional” (1996-1998).

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